Tropical Waves

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 24W from just south of the Cabo Verde Islands southward, and moving westward around 10 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is seen from 05N to 09N between 23W and 27W.

The position of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave has been adjusted to near 42W from 15N southward. It is moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found from 06N to 11N between 36W and 43W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 53W from 16N southward, and moving westward around 15 kt. Patchy showers are occurring from 07N to 09N between 51W and 55W.

The position of a central Caribbean tropical wave has been adjusted to near 73W from just south of Haiti southward to northern Colombia. It is moving westward around 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted near Hispaniola and in the Gulf of Venezuela.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coastal border of Mauritania and Senegal, then extends southwestward to 08N27W. An ITCZ continues westward from 08N27W to 10N39W, then from 09N43W to 10N52W. Widely scattered showers are present south of the monsoon trough from 04N to 06N between 10W and 20W.

Gulf Of America

Enhanced by a surface trough near the west coast of Florida, an upper-level trough is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the east-central Gulf. Convergent SE winds are coupling with deep tropical moisture to produce similar conditions at the west-central Gulf near Tampico, Mexico. Moderate to fresh SE winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft are evident at the southwestern Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. A modest 1021 mb high is supporting gentle winds and 1 to 2 ft seas at the north-central and northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate NE to SE winds with seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, deep tropical moisture will continue to advect north-northwestward across the western Gulf through Sat, supporting scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. The stronger thunderstorms may be accompanied by gusty winds and locally higher seas. Fresh NE to E winds will pulse each afternoon and evening during the next several days, north of the Yucatan Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche as a diurnal trough develops and tracks westward across the region. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds along with moderate seas are expected over the central and western Gulf through the weekend before diminishing early next week.

Caribbean Sea

Refer to the Tropical Waves section for convection in the Caribbean Sea. A 1023 mb Bermuda High near 29N69W continues to sustain a robust trade-wind regime across much of the basin. Fresh to strong ENE to E winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft are evident at the south-central basin. Gentle to moderate E winds with 3 to 5 ft seas are noted at the northwestern basin, north of 18N. Light to gentle winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft persist near Costa Rica and Panama. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds with 4 to 7 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, the Bermuda High will prolong fresh to strong trades over the central part of the basin through early next week. Winds will pulse to near-gale force off Colombia at night through Sat. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas will prevail.

Atlantic Ocean

A couple of surface troughs originated from the north-central Atlantic are generating scattered moderate convection in two places north of 27N, between 54W and 64W, and between 34W and 49W. A cold front curves southwestward from the far northeastern Atlantic across Madeira and 31N20W to 27N29W. Scattered showers are occurring near and up to 80 nm southeast of this boundary. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections at the beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

The Atlantic subtropical ridge stretches westward from a 1025 mb high near 27N35W to a 1023 mb Bermuda High near 29N69W. These features are supporting mostly gentle NE to SE winds with 4 to 6 ft seas north of 23N between 30W and the Florida/southern Georgia coast. To the south from 08N to 23N between the Cabo Verde Islands and Bahamas/Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh NNE to ESE winds and seas at 5 to 8 ft dominate. Near the Canary Islands, moderate to fresh with locally strong N to NE winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are found north of 20N between the Africa coast and 30W. For the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 10W, gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weak cold front or trough will pass to the southeast of Bermuda this weekend. Otherwise, high pressure will prevail. Moderate to fresh trades along with moderate to locally rough seas are expected south of 25N over the next few days, with gentle to locally moderate winds elsewhere.

Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Chan